Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 127720 times)

deiseach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2015, 03:26:33 PM »
It was a White Anglo-Saxon Panic.

muppet

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2015, 03:33:26 PM »
It was a White Anglo-Saxon Panic.

Ah I see. Unionists hate to see people leaving Unions.
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T Fearon

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2015, 06:08:41 PM »
Bit ironic all the same,that it was the freestate contingent,there in the capacity of "good neighbours" who were more exercised about the prospect of a Brexit than any of the Northern or "UK Mainland" contingent.Still don't understand this.

muppet

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2015, 07:31:03 PM »
Why is there a full stop in the thread title?

Is this significant?

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Rossfan

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2015, 07:42:53 PM »
Why is there a full stop in the thread title?

Is this significant?
It's probably a coded message to ISIS :o
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Kursk

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2015, 10:00:38 PM »
some interesting points here about EU expansion.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/enlargement-and-the-euro-two-big-mistakes-that-ruined-europe-1.2414019

Quote
There has hardly been a year when the EU has not been on the brink of some crisis: banking, sovereign debt, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and now refugees. You can always point fingers at individual politicians and assign blame. But it is highly implausible that the EU’s serial failures can always be explained as the product of accident and malice.

I put it down to two catastrophic errors committed during the 1990s and at the beginning of this millennium. The first was the introduction of the euro; the second, the EU’s enlargement to 28 members from 15 a couple of decades ago. You might agree with one or other of these statements, or with neither of them. But few people will agree with both.

I was among those who supported monetary union at the time of its introduction. Advocates of the euro at the time came from two different groups, who struck a Faustian Pact.

Members of the first group believed the euro as constructed would fail, and hoped it would somehow be fixed. The others thought the system would stay rigid, and bend the economies of its members into a new shape. This latter group knew that, to withstand the rigours of a fixed-exchange system that resembles nothing so much as the gold standard, countries would have to adjust to economic shocks through shifts in wages and prices — a course, they believed, that the euro’s members would be forced to take.

The admission that the euro was a mistake should not be confused with a desire to dissolve it. That would be even more catastrophic. It is merely a recognition that we are trapped in a dysfunctional monetary system.

But how does enlargement play into this? This is not an argument about any particular member state with whose actions one happens to disagree. Nor is it an argument about the principle of enlargement, which is fundamental to the EU. My quarrel is with the speed of accession, and the criteria that aspiring members have to meet. Just as countries have maximum absorption capacities for migrants, the EU has a maximum absorption capacity for new members. I have no idea what that number is in any given time period, but it surely is not 13 members in a single decade.

Enlargement affected Europe’s ability to respond to the shocks of subsequent years in two ways. First, it forced the EU to take its eye off the ball at a critical time when it should have focused on building the institutions needed to make the euro work. Second, enlargement meant that EU countries that were not in the eurozone suddenly found themselves in the majority. That shift naturally shaped the EU’s own agenda. I recall the obsession during those years with competitiveness, a typical small-country economic issue. Debates on the reform of Europe’s treaties during those years focused on voting rights and the protection of minorities. It was the overwhelming view of European officials and members of the European Parliament that the eurozone itself did not need to be fixed.

At that time it would have been comparatively easy to set up a banking union. But once the crisis set in, and banks suffered huge losses, countries could no longer share their deposit insurance schemes, let alone to create a single one for everybody. After the crisis had started, the debate about common insurance mechanisms became intertwined with one about transfers. The crisis thus rudely interrupted the EU’s time-honoured, step-by-step approach to integration.

An optimist might interject at this point that it is worth hanging in there. Crises come and go. The EU will still be there. Perhaps so, but then ask yourself: why was the period from the 1950s to the late 1990s more stable compared with the period since?

In the first years of the then European Economic Community, the external security risks were taken care of by Nato. There were almost no risks to financial stability because regulation was extremely stringent by today’s standards. While the economic shocks, such as the oil and inflation crises of the 1970s, were no less severe than today, EU members had the ability to absorb them through flexible exchange rates.

Today Brussels suddenly has to look after its own foreign policy interests and run the world’s second-largest economy. The EU is not institutionally ready for either job. And its leaders are intellectually not ready either.

We should expect to see more crises, more unilateral action by member states, greater willingness to explore opt-outs, invocation of exceptional circumstances to suspend EU-level action, more rule breaking and the like.

The real risk is not a formal break-up. That would be technically hard to do. But this is no consolation. The real danger is that the EU is simply going to wither away and turn into a ghost.

ashman

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2015, 10:11:10 PM »
Bit ironic all the same,that it was the freestate contingent,there in the capacity of "good neighbours" who were more exercised about the prospect of a Brexit than any of the Northern or "UK Mainland" contingent.Still don't understand this.

I assume the free state contingent were all from within 30 miles of the border ???

Hard to know yet .

Arthur_Friend

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2015, 08:57:43 PM »
Ireland were the political and economic outcast of Europe after deciding not to join the allies in WW2. The repercussions were felt for years. It still tarnishes Ireland's reputation, and Ireland will always bow down, cap in hand to the evil global administrations, and do whatever they say because of it.  Ireland had to lick Europe's arsehole and enter the EEC in the 70s (after being turned down).

Ireland, and all countries want, and need to join the EU otherwise they'll be outcasts and the country will be fucked (moreso than it is already). In an ideal world most people would say "feck Europe", but it's not that simple.

The Germans are still raging the Republic of Ireland didn't declare war on them in 1939? Right.

Kursk

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2015, 10:24:32 PM »
Ireland were the political and economic outcast of Europe after deciding not to join the allies in WW2. The repercussions were felt for years. It still tarnishes Ireland's reputation, and Ireland will always bow down, cap in hand to the evil global administrations, and do whatever they say because of it.  Ireland had to lick Europe's arsehole and enter the EEC in the 70s (after being turned down).

Ireland, and all countries want, and need to join the EU otherwise they'll be outcasts and the country will be fucked (moreso than it is already). In an ideal world most people would say "feck Europe", but it's not that simple.

The Germans are still raging the Republic of Ireland didn't declare war on them in 1939? Right.

As flippant as that thought may be, do you think we would have been better off declaring a side one way or the other ?

Farrandeelin

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #39 on: November 05, 2015, 07:17:40 AM »
Do people think a Brexit will come about?
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Maguire01

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #40 on: November 05, 2015, 09:00:35 AM »
No. It won't be a massive vote to stay in, but I think with a lot of these big votes, the 'don't knows' will fall disproportionately on the side of the status quo, with the 'fear of the unknown' element.

AZOffaly

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #41 on: November 05, 2015, 10:21:22 AM »
Ireland were the political and economic outcast of Europe after deciding not to join the allies in WW2. The repercussions were felt for years. It still tarnishes Ireland's reputation, and Ireland will always bow down, cap in hand to the evil global administrations, and do whatever they say because of it.  Ireland had to lick Europe's arsehole and enter the EEC in the 70s (after being turned down).

Ireland, and all countries want, and need to join the EU otherwise they'll be outcasts and the country will be fucked (moreso than it is already). In an ideal world most people would say "feck Europe", but it's not that simple.

The Germans are still raging the Republic of Ireland didn't declare war on them in 1939? Right.

As flippant as that thought may be, do you think we would have been better off declaring a side one way or the other ?

No. We'd have a whole lost generation of young men as well. I support neutrality.

deiseach

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #42 on: November 05, 2015, 10:26:58 AM »
I'm really looking forward to the Brexit referendum. You'll see a lot of masks slip, and it's hard to see how the Tory party can maintain unity. The craic will be ninety.

Rossfan

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #43 on: November 05, 2015, 11:21:08 AM »
Would cost the 26 Co economy €3Bn per annum in lost trade per the ESRI.
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muppet

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Re: Brexit.
« Reply #44 on: November 05, 2015, 11:29:40 AM »
Would cost the 26 Co economy €3Bn per annum in lost trade per the ESRI.

Yerra €3bn! We'd throw that at a dodgy credit union without even checking the accounts.

Would there be a bounce as the only English speaking country left in the EU? For example, US multinationals based in the UK could  move much of their operations here following a Brexit.
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